You will win over 90% of the time playing this roulette strategy

Deconstructing the “Over 90% Win Rate” Roulette Strategy: A Critical Analysis

Have you ever wondered if there’s a roulette strategy that genuinely boasts an “over 90% win rate,” as sometimes suggested in gameplay videos? The pursuit of a high-probability system in games of chance, such as roulette, is a perennial quest among enthusiasts. While the video above showcases a specific roulette strategy and claims significant success, a deeper analytical dive reveals the intricate nuances involved in such betting approaches. This article aims to meticulously dissect the mechanics and actual statistical implications of what appears to be a near-full coverage roulette strategy.

Unpacking the Near-Full Coverage Roulette Strategy

The roulette strategy highlighted in the video involves a structured approach to betting that aims to cover a substantial portion of the American roulette wheel’s 38 pockets. For a starting capital of $200, a total of $150 is strategically distributed across various bet types. This distribution is designed to maximize the number of outcomes that result in a payout, thus creating the perception of a high “win rate.” Understanding the specific placement of these wagers is crucial for any comprehensive analysis. Specifically, the strategy dictates placing a $50 wager on the “First 12” dozen (numbers 1-12) and another $50 on the “Third 12” dozen (numbers 25-36). These are standard dozens bets, which pay out at 2:1 odds. Furthermore, the remaining $50 is allocated to individual “middle numbers,” specifically those within the 13-24 range, with the explicit exclusion of 16 and 19. This implies that $5 straight-up bets are placed on each of the ten available numbers in this range (13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24), each paying 35:1.

Calculating the True Coverage and “Hit Rate”

In an American roulette game, the wheel comprises 38 unique pockets: numbers 1 through 36, along with 0 and 00. The strategy explicitly excludes four of these pockets from any wager: 0, 00, 16, and 19. Consequently, a total of 34 pockets are covered by the collective bets ($50 on 1-12, $50 on 25-36, and $50 spread across 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24). This means that if the ball lands on any of these 34 numbers, a payout of some kind will be triggered. From a purely probabilistic standpoint, the likelihood of the ball landing on one of these 34 covered numbers is 34/38, which calculates to approximately 89.47%. This percentage is precisely where the “over 90% win rate” claim originates, indicating a very high probability of hitting a covered number. However, the term “win rate” can be misleading in this context, as a payout does not always equate to a net profit. A crucial distinction must be made between simply receiving a payout and actually increasing one’s bankroll.

Dissecting Payouts Versus Net Profit

While a high hit rate is achieved with this roulette strategy, the ultimate profitability hinges on the specific number that lands. Let us examine the three possible scenarios regarding the outcome of a spin and its financial implications for the player who has wagered $150 in total: 1. **Hit a Dozen Number (1-12 or 25-36):** If the ball lands on any number within the first or third dozen (a total of 24 numbers), the $50 wager on that dozen pays out $100. However, the total amount wagered was $150. Therefore, hitting one of these numbers results in a net loss of $50 ($100 payout – $150 total wager). This outcome occurs with a probability of 24/38, or approximately 63.16% of spins. 2. **Hit a Middle Straight-Up Number (13-15, 17-18, 20-24):** Should the ball land on any of the ten individual numbers covered by $5 straight-up bets (e.g., 24 Black as shown in the video), the payout is $5 x 35 = $175. In this case, the total wager was $150, leading to a net profit of $25 ($175 payout – $150 total wager). The probability of achieving this net profit is 10/38, or roughly 26.32%. 3. **Hit an Uncovered Number (0, 00, 16, 19):** If the ball falls into one of the four pockets not covered by any bet, no payout is received. This results in a total loss of the initial $150 wager. This scenario has a probability of 4/38, or approximately 10.53%.

The Unwavering House Edge in Roulette

This detailed breakdown elucidates that despite an impressive “hit rate” of nearly 90%, the actual probability of securing a *net profit* with this specific roulette strategy is only about 26.32%. More than half of the time (63.16%), the player will still incur a loss, albeit a smaller one, while a direct loss of the entire stake occurs approximately 10.53% of the time. This phenomenon underscores a fundamental principle of casino games: the house edge. In American roulette, the presence of both the 0 and 00 pockets ensures a consistent statistical advantage for the casino. For nearly all bets, this house edge stands at approximately 5.26%. No matter how ingeniously bets are structured or how many numbers are covered, the inherent mathematical advantage of the house cannot be negated by simply increasing the volume of wagers or the number of covered pockets. Strategies such as the one described merely redistribute the expected value across different outcomes; they do not alter the overall negative expected return on investment per spin. This is a critical concept for any serious roulette player to grasp, as it forms the bedrock of long-term profitability considerations in gambling.